The role of climate change and human interventions in affecting watershed runoff responses     

Tesfaye Belay Senbeta  Renata Julita Romanowicz 《水文研究》2021,35(12):e14448

Identifying the role of the two main driving factors—climate change and human interventions—in influencing runoff processes is essential for sustainable water resources management. For this purpose, runoff regime change detection methods were used to divide the available hydroclimatic variables into a baseline and a disturbed period. We applied hydrological modelling and the climate elasticity of runoff method to determine the contribution of climate change and human interventions to changes in runoff. The hydrological model, SWAT, was calibrated during the baseline period and used to simulate the naturalized runoff pattern for the disturbed period. Significant changes in runoff in the study watershed were detected from 1982, suggesting that human interventions play a dominant role in influencing runoff. The combined effects of climate change and human interventions resulted in a 41.3 mm (23.9%) decrease in runoff during the disturbed period, contributing about 40% and 60% to the total runoff change, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of changes in land cover dynamics in the watershed over the past four decades supported these changes in runoff. Contrary to other decades, the discrepancy between naturalized and observed runoff was small in the 2010s, likely due to increased baseflow as a result of storage and/or release of excess water during the dry season. This study contributes to our understanding of how climate change and human interventions affect hydrological responses of watersheds, which is important for future sustainable water management and drought adaptation.  相似文献   

An approach to analysing plot scale infiltration and runoff responses to rainfall of fluctuating intensity   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

David Dunkerley 《水文研究》2017,31(1):191-206

Simulated rainfall of fluctuating intensity was applied to runoff plots on bare dryland soils in order to explore a new method for analysing the non‐steady‐state responses of infiltration and overland flow. The rainfall events all averaged 10 mm/h but included intensity bursts of up to 70 mm/h and lasting 5–15 min, as well as periods of low intensity and intermittency of up to 25 min. Results were compared with traditional steady‐state estimates of infiltrability made under simulated rainfall sustained at a fixed intensity of 10 mm/h. Mean event infiltration rate averaged 13.6% higher under fluctuating intensities, while runoff ratios averaged only 63% of those seen under constant intensity. In order to understand the changing soil infiltrability, up to three affine Horton infiltration equations were fitted to segments of each experiment. All equations had the same final infiltrability f_c, but adjusted values for coefficients f₀ (initial infiltrability) and K_f (exponential decay constant) were fitted for periods of rainfall that followed significant hiatuses in rainfall, during which subsurface redistribution allowed near‐surface soil suction to recover. According to the fitted Horton equations, soil infiltrability recovered by up 10–24 mm/h during intra‐event rainfall hiatuses of 15 to 20‐min duration, contributing to higher overall event infiltration rates and to reduced runoff ratios. The recovery of infiltrability also reduced the size of runoff peaks following periods of low intensity rainfall, compared with the predictions based on single Horton infiltration equations, and in some cases, no runoff at all was recorded from late intensity peaks. The principal finding of this study is that, using a set of affine equations, the intra‐event time variation of soil infiltrability can be tracked through multiple intensity bursts and hiatuses, despite the lack of steady‐state conditions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Rainfall–runoff responses on Arctic hillslopes underlain by continuous permafrost,North Slope,Alaska, USA          下载免费PDF全文

Caitlin R. Rushlow  Sarah E. Godsey 《水文研究》2017,31(23):4092-4106

The Arctic hydrologic cycle is intensifying, as evidenced by increased rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and riverine discharge. However, the controls on water fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic systems in upland Arctic landscapes are poorly understood. Upland landscapes account for one third of the Arctic land surface and are often drained by zero‐order geomorphic flowpath features called water tracks. Previous work in the region attributed rapid runoff response at larger stream orders to water tracks, but models suggest water tracks are hydrologically disconnected from the surrounding hillslope. To better understand the role of water tracks in upland landscapes, we investigated the surface and subsurface hydrologic responses of 6 water tracks and their hillslope watersheds to natural patterns of rainfall, soil thaw, and drainage. Between storms, both water track discharge and the water table in the hillslope watersheds exhibited diel fluctuations that, when lagged by 5 hr, were temporally correlated with peak evapotranspiration rate. Water track soils remained saturated for more of the summer season than soils in their surrounding hillslope watersheds. When rainfall occurred, the subsurface response was nearly instantaneous, but the water tracks took significantly longer than the hillslopes to respond to rainfall, and longer than the responses previously observed in nearby larger order Arctic streams. There was also evidence for antecedent soil water storage conditions controlling the magnitude of runoff response. Based on these observations, we used a broken stick model to test the hypothesis that runoff production in response to individual storms was primarily controlled by rainfall amount and antecedent water storage conditions near the water track outlet. We found that the relative importance of the two factors varied by site, and that water tracks with similar watershed geometries and at similar landscape positions had similar rainfall–runoff model relationships. Thus, the response of terrestrial water fluxes in the upland Arctic to climate change depends on the non‐linear interactions between rainfall patterns and subsurface water storage capacity on hillslopes. Predicting these interactions across the landscape remains an important challenge.  相似文献   

Effects of different spatial distributions of physical soil crusts on runoff and erosion on the Loess Plateau in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Pei Lu  Xinli Xie  Linhua Wang  Faqi Wu 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(13):2082-2089

The response of runoff and erosion to soil crusts has been extensively investigated in recent decades. However, there have been few attempts to look at the effects of spatial configuration of different soil crusts on erosion processes. Here we investigated the effects of different spatial distributions of physical soil crusts on runoff and erosion in the semi‐arid Loess Plateau region. Soil boxes (1.5 m long × 0.2 m wide) were set to a slope of 17.6% (10°) and simulated rainfall of 120 mm h^?1 (60 minutes). The runoff generation and erosion rates were determined for three crust area ratios (depositional crust for 20%, 33%, and 50% of the total slope) and five spatial distribution patterns (depositional crust on the lower, lower‐middle, middle, mid‐upper, and upper slope) of soil crusts. The reduction in sediment loss (‘sediment reduction’) was calculated to evaluate the effects of different spatial distributions of soil crusts on erosion. Sediment yield was influenced by the area ratio and spatial position of different soil crusts. The runoff rate reached a steady state after an initial trend of unsteadily increasing with increasing rainfall duration. Sediment yield was controlled by detachment limitation and then transport limitation under rainfall. The shifting time of erosion from a transport to detachment‐limiting regime decreased with increasing area of depositional crust. No significant differences were observed in the total runoff among treatments, while the total sediment yield varied under different spatial distributions. At the same area ratio, total sediment yield was the largest when the depositional crust was on the upper slope, and it was smallest when the crust was deposited on the lower slope. The sediment reduction of structural crust (42.5–66.5%) was greater than that of depositional crust (16.7–34.3%). These results provide a mechanistic understanding of how different spatial distributions of soil crusts affect runoff and sediment production. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrological responses to climatic variability in a cold agricultural region          下载免费PDF全文

Taufique H. Mahmood  John W. Pomeroy  Howard S. Wheater  Helen M. Baulch 《水文研究》2017,31(4):854-870

Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff.  相似文献   

Comparison of two rainfall–runoff models: effects of conceptualization on water budget components     

Vassilios Kaleris  Andreas Langousis 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(5):729-748

Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.